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2012 Review of Treasury’s Forecasting Methodology and Performance

Status
Closed
Date
Review chair
Dr David Chessell
Topic

The 2012 Review of Treasury's Forecasting Methodology and Performance (the Review) will assess the quality of Treasury's forecasts of the macroeconomy and revenue by examining the appropriateness of forecasting methodologies and comparing forecast accuracy with other forecasters both in Australia and overseas.

Treasury's forecasting of the macroeconomy and revenues operates in an environment of continuous evaluation and development. From time to time, the Treasury takes stock of the Department's forecasting capability and performance. The outcome of the most recent review of macroeconomic forecasts was published in theEconomicRoundupAutumn2005. This follows on from the publication of key results of the 1996 evaluation of macroeconomic forecasting performance in the EconomicRoundupAutumn1996.

The 2012 Review will commence shortly and run over a period of around three months. It will be undertaken by a team within Treasury, overseen by an independent external Reference Group made up of members with strong economic credentials. The Reference Group members are:

  • Dr David Chessell, Partner & Chairman, Access Capital Advisers Pty Ltd - Chair of the Reference Group
  • Dr Lynne Williams, Former Deputy Secretary, Victorian Department of Treasury and Finance
  • Mr Peter Crone, Chief Economist and Director Policy, Business Council of Australia
  • Dr Malcolm Edey, Assistant Governor (Financial System), Reserve Bank of Australia

A copy of the Review is now available.

Terms of reference

Background

Treasury's forecasting of the macroeconomy and revenues operates in an environment of continuous evaluation and development. The forecasts are regularly subjected to internal review, and to external review as part of the quarterly Joint Economic Forecasting Group (JEFG) meetings with relevant agencies. However, from time to time, it is valuable to formally take stock of the Department's forecasting capability and performance. This was most recently done in 2005 for both macroeconomic and revenue forecasting, and it is timely to again take stock.

Scope

The review will assess the quality of Treasury forecasting of the macroeconomy and revenue by examining the appropriateness of forecasting methodologies and comparing forecast accuracy with other forecasters both in Australia and overseas.

Governance

The review will be undertaken by a team within Treasury, overseen by an independent external Reference Group with relevant expertise.

Timing

Three months.

Reporting

A summary of the Review will be published later in the year.

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